The publication process for 2013 is complete. I finished updating my Web
site today.
Every page in the site received some modifications. All links have been updated. I tested most of them and they seem to work properly. If anyone finds a broken link or other error anywhere on the site, I'd appreciate it if you would let me know.
If you would like to see the new description
page for new 2013 edition (aka the "landing page"), please click
here. Other pages of interest:
>>New constitution for my Dividend Growth Portfolio.
>>Year-end 2012 report card for the Dividend Growth Portfolio.
>>Dividend growth investing FAQ.
In its first two days since publication Tuesday evening, the new edition has set sales records. I appreciate so much your
support, encouragement, and purchases.
Now I will turn my attention back
to catching up with my email and writing articles for Seeking Alpha. I
have only published a couple of articles in the last two months, but I have a lot of
ideas in the pipeline. I hope that I run into you there!
Dave
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
THE 2013 EDITION IS NOW AVAILABLE!
I have completed the new edition! Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks for 2013: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing is now available for purchase.
As promised, it is being offered here first. It will take me a day or two to update my Web site and make it available there, but I can offer it here now for those who know that they want it without reading a complete description of the publication. A complete informational page will be available in a day or two. If you have any doubts, please wait for the informational page to be completed so you can get a better idea about the product.
Here are some salient points:
>>As in past years, the Top 40 is an Adobe PDF digital download eBook.
>>While not specifically designed for e-Readers (such as Kindle or Nook), it should display without problem on them. It will display on any PC that has an Adobe reader, and I recommend that you download it to your PC first, then place it onto any other devices that you want.
>>The eBook is 187 pages. I have expanded coverage of several topics this year. As usual, each of the Top 40 stocks has its own dedicated page with complete analysis.
>>For the first time, Chuck Carnevale's popular F.A.S.T. Graphs are used in valuing stocks. Through a special arrangement with Chuck, the graphs in the book can be updated throughout 2013 at no additional charge. A link is provided on each stock's page to update the graph for that stock.
>>The price remains $40.
The "Buy Now" button to purchase Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks for 2013: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing is in the upper right corner of my blog/newsletter. If you are reading this post in an email, you cannot see the button. Please go to the full blog by clicking the title at the top of this email or by clicking here: Sensible Stocks.com Blog. The button there is the only purchase button that works at the present time. All of the buttons on my Web site have been disabled. I will update them for the new edition within a couple of days.
Thanks very much for your support and interest, and I hope that the new edition helps your investing in 2013!
Dave
As promised, it is being offered here first. It will take me a day or two to update my Web site and make it available there, but I can offer it here now for those who know that they want it without reading a complete description of the publication. A complete informational page will be available in a day or two. If you have any doubts, please wait for the informational page to be completed so you can get a better idea about the product.
Here are some salient points:
>>As in past years, the Top 40 is an Adobe PDF digital download eBook.
>>While not specifically designed for e-Readers (such as Kindle or Nook), it should display without problem on them. It will display on any PC that has an Adobe reader, and I recommend that you download it to your PC first, then place it onto any other devices that you want.
>>The eBook is 187 pages. I have expanded coverage of several topics this year. As usual, each of the Top 40 stocks has its own dedicated page with complete analysis.
>>For the first time, Chuck Carnevale's popular F.A.S.T. Graphs are used in valuing stocks. Through a special arrangement with Chuck, the graphs in the book can be updated throughout 2013 at no additional charge. A link is provided on each stock's page to update the graph for that stock.
>>The price remains $40.
The "Buy Now" button to purchase Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks for 2013: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing is in the upper right corner of my blog/newsletter. If you are reading this post in an email, you cannot see the button. Please go to the full blog by clicking the title at the top of this email or by clicking here: Sensible Stocks.com Blog. The button there is the only purchase button that works at the present time. All of the buttons on my Web site have been disabled. I will update them for the new edition within a couple of days.
Thanks very much for your support and interest, and I hope that the new edition helps your investing in 2013!
Dave
Friday, December 28, 2012
F.A.S.T. Graphs Come to Top 40
I am happy to announce that Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks for 2013: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing will contain a significant new enhancement: F.A.S.T. Graphs(tm).
In cooperation with Chuck Carnevale, the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs, I will be using his graphs, along with Morningstar star ratings, to adopt a new approach to the important step of stock valuation.
F.A.S.T. Graphs visually represent a stock's valuation in comparison to its fair or intrinsic value. The idea is to buy stocks "on sale" when you can, and avoid them when they are overpriced. Here, a picture is worth a thousand words:
On the chart, Johnson & Johnson's fair value is represented by the orange line, what Chuck calls the "earnings justified" value. The black line is JNJ's actual price. As you can see, the black line is a little below the orange line. In other words, JNJ is a bit undervalued at the moment. That makes it more attractive.
F.A.S.T. Graphs have been gaining popularity with Seeking Alpha readers, and you can see why. They are so easy to interpret. In this chart, called the "Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator," Chuck uses the historically common Price/Earnings ratio of 15 to draw the orange fair value line. The year 2012 is based on actual earnings for JNJ. The projections forward for five years are based on consensus analyst estimates for the expected growth rate in JNJ's earnings. You see a slow and steady growth rate of about 7% per year.
Each of the Top 40 stocks will have an image like the one above on its Easy-Rate(tm) Scoresheet. But (as they say on TV), Wait, there's more! Beneath each image will be a link to the F.A.S.T. Graphs website. Throughout 2013, you will be able to click on that link and go view a chart that is up to date as of the moment you click the link. With Chuck's kind cooperation, these links will be open and live all year!
In the coming edition, I have reduced the valuation factors to two: Morningstar's stars, and F.A.S.T. Graphs' charts. Morningstar updates their star rankings throughout the year, and F.A.S.T. Graphs are updated daily. So with just a couple of clicks, you will be able to derive an up-to-date stock valuation throughout the year. That's why I am so excited about this enhancement.
The eBook is proceeding swimmingly. Tomorrow (Saturday) we leave for Florida, to arrive on Tuesday, January 1 (2013!). After we get settled, it will take me 2-3 weeks to update everything with full-year information, double-check the whole eBook, and load it up. So I expect publication some time between about January 15 and January 22.
As last year, the first place that the 2013 edition will be available is right here. I will install a "buy" button here a couple of days before I can update my SensibleStocks.com website.
I will post another brief article when the eBook is available, with instructions on how to order it right from here (the blog site). It will be in the upper-right corner.
Happy New Year everyone!
Dave
In cooperation with Chuck Carnevale, the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs, I will be using his graphs, along with Morningstar star ratings, to adopt a new approach to the important step of stock valuation.
F.A.S.T. Graphs visually represent a stock's valuation in comparison to its fair or intrinsic value. The idea is to buy stocks "on sale" when you can, and avoid them when they are overpriced. Here, a picture is worth a thousand words:
On the chart, Johnson & Johnson's fair value is represented by the orange line, what Chuck calls the "earnings justified" value. The black line is JNJ's actual price. As you can see, the black line is a little below the orange line. In other words, JNJ is a bit undervalued at the moment. That makes it more attractive.
F.A.S.T. Graphs have been gaining popularity with Seeking Alpha readers, and you can see why. They are so easy to interpret. In this chart, called the "Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator," Chuck uses the historically common Price/Earnings ratio of 15 to draw the orange fair value line. The year 2012 is based on actual earnings for JNJ. The projections forward for five years are based on consensus analyst estimates for the expected growth rate in JNJ's earnings. You see a slow and steady growth rate of about 7% per year.
Each of the Top 40 stocks will have an image like the one above on its Easy-Rate(tm) Scoresheet. But (as they say on TV), Wait, there's more! Beneath each image will be a link to the F.A.S.T. Graphs website. Throughout 2013, you will be able to click on that link and go view a chart that is up to date as of the moment you click the link. With Chuck's kind cooperation, these links will be open and live all year!
In the coming edition, I have reduced the valuation factors to two: Morningstar's stars, and F.A.S.T. Graphs' charts. Morningstar updates their star rankings throughout the year, and F.A.S.T. Graphs are updated daily. So with just a couple of clicks, you will be able to derive an up-to-date stock valuation throughout the year. That's why I am so excited about this enhancement.
The eBook is proceeding swimmingly. Tomorrow (Saturday) we leave for Florida, to arrive on Tuesday, January 1 (2013!). After we get settled, it will take me 2-3 weeks to update everything with full-year information, double-check the whole eBook, and load it up. So I expect publication some time between about January 15 and January 22.
As last year, the first place that the 2013 edition will be available is right here. I will install a "buy" button here a couple of days before I can update my SensibleStocks.com website.
I will post another brief article when the eBook is available, with instructions on how to order it right from here (the blog site). It will be in the upper-right corner.
Happy New Year everyone!
Dave
Saturday, December 1, 2012
2013 Edition Update
I am still on track to publish the 2013 edition of Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks in mid-January.
Here is the status of everything as of today:
Stocks: My original list of >500 candidates has been winnowed to just under 100. In December, I will go through the remaining candidates, apply several Easy-Rate factors to them, and try to get the list down to 45-50. I will then fully rate those names in the first week of January (when full-year 2012 data is available) and select the final Top 40.
Text: During November, I worked my way through about 80% of the text, updating it and adding new features and information. The text grows every year. Even as I tighten it up, new subjects and more complete discussions make the overall size grow. Some of the new or expanded coverage this coming year will include:
>> More complete treatment of risk.
>> Better coverage of diversification.
>> Added emphasis on the importance of valuation.
>> Several new definitions in the glossary.
>> Addition of beta as a scoring factor. (Lower beta, meaning less volatility, is better.)
Every year, I agonize over the sub-title. The main title--Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks--does not capture the full essence of the eBook. Sometimes I think that the most important content is not the Top 40 themselves (as important as they are), but rather the step-by-step investing guide along with the foundational discussions that support the whole dividend growth strategy. At the moment, I have two versions of the sub-title:
>> The Theory and Practice of Dividend Growth Investing
>> A Step-by-Step Guide to Dividend Growth Investing
Last year's sub-title was "How to Create and Maintain a Dividend Growth Portfolio."
Obviously, I want to convey that this eBook is far more than a list of 40 stocks. The text has more than twice as many pages as are used to cover the Top 40 stocks themselves.
If you have any thoughts about the best sub-title, please drop me an email. Thanks!
Regards,
Dave
Here is the status of everything as of today:
Stocks: My original list of >500 candidates has been winnowed to just under 100. In December, I will go through the remaining candidates, apply several Easy-Rate factors to them, and try to get the list down to 45-50. I will then fully rate those names in the first week of January (when full-year 2012 data is available) and select the final Top 40.
Text: During November, I worked my way through about 80% of the text, updating it and adding new features and information. The text grows every year. Even as I tighten it up, new subjects and more complete discussions make the overall size grow. Some of the new or expanded coverage this coming year will include:
>> More complete treatment of risk.
>> Better coverage of diversification.
>> Added emphasis on the importance of valuation.
>> Several new definitions in the glossary.
>> Addition of beta as a scoring factor. (Lower beta, meaning less volatility, is better.)
Every year, I agonize over the sub-title. The main title--Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks--does not capture the full essence of the eBook. Sometimes I think that the most important content is not the Top 40 themselves (as important as they are), but rather the step-by-step investing guide along with the foundational discussions that support the whole dividend growth strategy. At the moment, I have two versions of the sub-title:
>> The Theory and Practice of Dividend Growth Investing
>> A Step-by-Step Guide to Dividend Growth Investing
Last year's sub-title was "How to Create and Maintain a Dividend Growth Portfolio."
Obviously, I want to convey that this eBook is far more than a list of 40 stocks. The text has more than twice as many pages as are used to cover the Top 40 stocks themselves.
If you have any thoughts about the best sub-title, please drop me an email. Thanks!
Regards,
Dave
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
THE 2013 EDITION IS COMING!
I have begun work on the 2013 edition of Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks.
Actually, I have been working on it all year. As soon as the 2012 edition was published, I began collecting information for possible inclusion in the next edition. I maintain an ongoing file of items, including excerpts from my articles on Seeking Alpha, my comments there, and extracts from other sources that I find interesting or useful. I keep this file building all year, adding to it as time goes on. I make a "final search" for additional new material in October. I recently completed that updating operation. I have >150 pages of potential new stuff!
Also throughout the year, I collect ongoing information about not only the current Top 40 stocks, but also other likely candidates. This is my sixth year in writing this eBook, and I have learned that many of the same stocks turn up as legitimate candidates year in and year out, even if they do not make it into the Top 40. Then in October, I do an independent search for other candidates to add to the "starting universe" of potential Top 40 stocks.
This year's starting universe included more than 450 stocks. I have already culled that list by applying some simple basic requirements:
This morning, I turned my attention to updating the text. This will take most of the rest of the year. The 150 pages of potential new material exceeds last year's size of the entire eBook! I need to integrate it wherever possible, eliminate duplicate information, and create new sections (or even a new chapter) to incoporate the new information. Every year, the text gets tighter and tighter, yet contains more information than the year before. The text will probably grow by several pages; that has been the pattern from the beginning.
I am aiming for publication around mid-January, 2013. Waiting until January allows me to incorporate full-year 2012 data for the stocks. As soon as the new edition is available, I will announce it in this newsletter first.
Regards,
Dave
Actually, I have been working on it all year. As soon as the 2012 edition was published, I began collecting information for possible inclusion in the next edition. I maintain an ongoing file of items, including excerpts from my articles on Seeking Alpha, my comments there, and extracts from other sources that I find interesting or useful. I keep this file building all year, adding to it as time goes on. I make a "final search" for additional new material in October. I recently completed that updating operation. I have >150 pages of potential new stuff!
Also throughout the year, I collect ongoing information about not only the current Top 40 stocks, but also other likely candidates. This is my sixth year in writing this eBook, and I have learned that many of the same stocks turn up as legitimate candidates year in and year out, even if they do not make it into the Top 40. Then in October, I do an independent search for other candidates to add to the "starting universe" of potential Top 40 stocks.
This year's starting universe included more than 450 stocks. I have already culled that list by applying some simple basic requirements:
- Yield must be at least 3.0%. For utilities, yield must be at least 4.0%. For banks I use 3.8% and for MLPs 6.0%. (The latter requirements are there, because there are so many utilities, banks, and MLPs in the initial universe. Might as well eliminate the lower-yielding ones right from the beginning.)
- Stocks that are significantly overvalued (as shown by Morningstar or their P/E ratio) have been deleted.
This morning, I turned my attention to updating the text. This will take most of the rest of the year. The 150 pages of potential new material exceeds last year's size of the entire eBook! I need to integrate it wherever possible, eliminate duplicate information, and create new sections (or even a new chapter) to incoporate the new information. Every year, the text gets tighter and tighter, yet contains more information than the year before. The text will probably grow by several pages; that has been the pattern from the beginning.
I am aiming for publication around mid-January, 2013. Waiting until January allows me to incorporate full-year 2012 data for the stocks. As soon as the new edition is available, I will announce it in this newsletter first.
Regards,
Dave
Friday, January 20, 2012
Web Site Updated
The total publication process for 2012 is complete. I finished updating my Web site today. Practically every page in the site is new, if for no other reason than to update links pertaining to the new edition, TOP 40 DIVIDEND GROWTH STOCKS FOR 2012: How to Create and Maintain a Dividend Growth Portfolio.
If you would like to see the new description page for the eBook (aka the "landing page"), please click here. Also, if anyone finds a broken link or other error anywhere on the site, I'd appreciate it if you would let me know.
In its first week of publication, the new edition has set sales records. I appreciate so much your support, encouragement, and purchases.
Now I can turn my attention back to catching up with my email and writing articles for Seeking Alpha. I have published only one article since the end of October, but I have a lot of ideas in the pipeline. I hope that I run into you there!
Dave
If you would like to see the new description page for the eBook (aka the "landing page"), please click here. Also, if anyone finds a broken link or other error anywhere on the site, I'd appreciate it if you would let me know.
In its first week of publication, the new edition has set sales records. I appreciate so much your support, encouragement, and purchases.
Now I can turn my attention back to catching up with my email and writing articles for Seeking Alpha. I have published only one article since the end of October, but I have a lot of ideas in the pipeline. I hope that I run into you there!
Dave
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