STATUS UPDATE ON 2014 EDITION

Hi everyone,

Happy Holidays! I thought I would let you all know where I am with the 2014 edition of Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing.

First off, the eBook will have a fancy new cover this year, more professional looking. The cover design is thanks to my friends at Daily Trade Alert, for whom I wrote several articles this year.

Second, I have completed the first draft of the text, at least as much as I can at this time. I still need to write the 2013 review and 2014 preview chapter; fill in the tables of 2013 performance; and add any text necessitated by the stock picks for 2014. Before publication, I will complete those sections and reread the text at least twice. I review it once for content and sensibility, and a second time for form. The reviews add 2-3 days to the production schedule, but I think they are worth it for a polished result.

Most of my time recently has been devoted to selecting the Top 40 stocks. This is a multi-step process that began in October and really got rolling this month. I start with the CCC document (Dividend Champions, Challengers, and Contenders) which has about 470 names. I cull those stocks down by applying a few initial, quick tests. This year, I lowered my threshold for minimum yield down to 2%, because many readers have expressed interest in lower-yielding stocks of great companies that may have faster dividend growth rates. This meant that more stocks than normal passed my initial screens.

Then I went through a second and then a third winnowing, using metrics that I could get quickly from the CCC document and from the Quote page for each stock on Morningstar. In stages, I reduced the original 470 names down to about 100, then 65, and most recently to 47. These are not fully "scored" yet (and won't be until full-year 2013 data is available), but it allows me to concentrate my efforts on the stocks most likely to make the Final 40 and not waste time on clear non-contenders.

This week, I started writing the Stories for each remaining candidate. This is the most laborious part of the process, but it is necessary. I do not feel that someone should invest in a company unless they can briefly and coherently explain how the company makes money and why it should continue to do so.

Creating the Stories can be revealing. Every year, one or two otherwise strong companies fails on the basis of its Story. I eliminated one today: Digital Realty Trust (DLR). It won't be in the Top 40, so I'm letting you know about it here so you can check it out if you like. After about an hour's research, it became apparent that I would not be able to write a brief coherent Story that would not be based on outright speculation about the company's future.

I hope to get about 30 of the Stories done by the time we leave for Florida on Sunday. We will arrive on January 1 (we spend New Year's Eve un-glamorously on the road), and I will get the writing operation back in gear on January 1 or 2. If things go as they did last year, I should be able to publish the eBook around the middle of the month.

The 2013 launch was on January 15, and I hope to hit that date again this coming year. As last year, the eBook will initially be available only from this blog. I will put a "Buy Now" button in the upper right corner of this page for those who know that they want to purchase without reading all the details and promotional material.

After that launch, it will take me 2-3 days to update my Web site (SensibleStocks.com) to reflect information about the new edition. Then it will be available from both there and here.

Happy New Year to all! I will see you on the other side.

Dave

THE 2014 EDITION IS COMING!

In October, I began work on the 2014 edition of TOP 40 DIVIDEND GROWTH STOCKS. 

Actually, as in previous years, I have been working on it all year. Here's what I mean:

As soon as the 2013 edition was published, I began collecting information for possible inclusion in the 2014 edition. Throughout the year, I maintain an ongoing file of items, including excerpts from my articles on Seeking Alpha, my comments there, my "lessons" in the Daily Trade Alert, and extracts from other sources that I find interesting. I keep building this file all year. I made a final search for additional new material in October. I ended up with more than 170 pages of potential new stuff!

I have been working the new material into the text for the last two months. That creates the first draft of the text. I am very concerned about length, but I also want to be comprehensive. So I try to eliminate redundancies and tighten the writing wherever I can. 

Also throughout the year, I collect ongoing information about not only the current Top 40 stocks, but also other likely candidates. This is my 7th year in writing this eBook, and many of the same stocks turn up as legitimate candidates year in and year out. 

In a few days, the December edition of the "CCC" document will be available. (For the uninitiated, that is the invaluable Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.) Those 500 or so stocks will be my starting universe to cull down to the eventual Top 40 for 2014.

There is one important change this year. Because of interest expressed by many readers, I will consider stocks with yields as low as 2% this year, compared to 3% last year. (I will still keep the requirement for utilities of at least 4% and for  MLPs of 5%.) This will open up the doors for stocks such as ExxonMobil and Wal-Mart, excellent companies that have been ineligible in the past because of low yields. They must make up for their lower yields with higher dividend growth rates (DGR). I don't know whether any of these stocks will make it to the Top 40, but they will be eligible to compete.

I am making this change to a lower minimum yield this year at the request of many younger readers, who look forward to many years or decades of compounding. They are willing to start with a lower initial yield for a high quality company if it has a higher DGR.

I am happy to report that once again this year the eBook will contain FASTGraphs for every stock. These worked out great for valuation last year. By special arrangement, you will be able to update the FASTGraph for every stock throughout 2014. 

There will also be at least one new chapter this year. My demonstration Dividend Growth Portfolio now has more than 5 years under its belt. It has proved to be a great teaching and learning tool. I am gathering all of the information about this portfolio into a self-contained chapter for maximum effectiveness.

I am aiming for publication around mid-January, 2014. Waiting until January allows me to incorporate full-year 2013 data for the stocks. As soon as the new edition is available, I will announce it in this newsletter first.

Regards, 

Dave

Web Site Has Been Updated

The publication process for 2013 is complete. I finished updating my Web site today.

Every page in the site received some modifications. All links have been updated. I tested most of them and they seem to work properly. If anyone finds a broken link or other error anywhere on the site, I'd appreciate it if you would let me know.

If you would like to see the new description page for new 2013 edition (aka the "landing page"), please click here. Other pages of interest:

>>New constitution for my Dividend Growth Portfolio.
>>Year-end 2012 report card for the Dividend Growth Portfolio.
>>Dividend growth investing FAQ.

In its first two days since publication Tuesday evening, the new edition has set sales records. I appreciate so much your support, encouragement, and purchases.

Now I will turn my attention back to catching up with my email and writing articles for Seeking Alpha. I have only published a couple of articles in the last two months, but I have a lot of ideas in the pipeline. I hope that I run into you there!

Dave

THE 2013 EDITION IS NOW AVAILABLE!

I have completed the new edition! Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks for 2013: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing is now available for purchase.

As promised, it is being offered here first. It will take me a day or two to update my Web site and make it available there, but I can offer it here now for those who know that they want it without reading a complete description of the publication. A complete informational page will be available in a day or two. If you have any doubts, please wait for the informational page to be completed so you can get a better idea about the product.

Here are some salient points:

>>As in past years, the Top 40 is an Adobe PDF digital download eBook.
>>While not specifically designed for e-Readers (such as Kindle or Nook), it should display without problem on them. It will display on any PC that has an Adobe reader, and I recommend that you download it to your PC first, then place it onto any other devices that you want.
>>The eBook is 187 pages. I have expanded coverage of several topics this year. As usual, each of the Top 40 stocks has its own dedicated page with complete analysis.
>>For the first time, Chuck Carnevale's popular F.A.S.T. Graphs are used in valuing stocks. Through a special arrangement with Chuck, the graphs in the book can be updated throughout 2013 at no additional charge. A link is provided on each stock's page to update the graph for that stock.
>>The price remains $40.

The "Buy Now" button to purchase Top 40 Dividend Growth Stocks for 2013: A Sensible Guide to Dividend Growth Investing is in the upper right corner of my blog/newsletter. If you are reading this post in an email, you cannot see the button. Please go to the full blog by clicking the title at the top of this email or by clicking here: Sensible Stocks.com Blog. The button there is the only purchase button that works at the present time. All of the buttons on my Web site have been disabled. I will update them for the new edition within a couple of days.

Thanks very much for your support and interest, and I hope that the new edition helps your investing in 2013!

Dave