Monday, June 28, 2010

Timing Outlook Turns Negative Again

1. Summary

The market’s gyrations have the Timing Outlook gyrating too. The last three readings have been negative-positive-negative. Today’s value is 4.5, which is negative.

(Click on chart to enlarge it.)

As shown in this year-to-date chart of the S&P 500, the market has continued its volatile behavior. “Big” moves (more than 10 points, up or down, on the S&P 500) have characterized the market’s daily performance for almost two months. Look at all the “long” candlesticks, each one of which represents a single day’s trading. Contrast them with the smooth upward glide from February 8 to April 12.

Some things to note from the chart, none of them good.

• There have been several crosses of lines in the past two months. First, we see the index itself cross downward through its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA). Then the 20-day SMA crosses downward through the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The only remaining “death cross” would be to see the 50-day SMA cross downward through the 200-day SMA.

• Focusing on the latter, the 50-day SMA (now at 1128) is rapidly falling toward the 200-day SMA (now at 1112). In mid-May, the 50-day was 7% above the 200-day. That difference has shrunk to 1%.

• The red line (200-day SMA) has gone nearly flat from a clearly ascending mode not that long ago.

The Timing Outlook is least useful when the market is gyrating. As noted earlier, the last three readings have been negative-positive-negative. The Timing Outlook attempts to answer the question, In what direction will the market or individual stock go over the next 2-4 weeks? My studies of the Timing Outlook’s performance show that it is least useful when the market is going back and forth every week or two. That’s the kind of market we have been in for more than two months. If U means up and D means down, the last 10 weeks of market action have been U-D-D-U-D-U-D-U-U-D.

As frequent readers know, I use an additional set of criteria to help determine when to re-enter the market when one is in cash. These criteria require a general up-trend in the market over the past 2-3-4 weeks and also require that 2/3 of the trading days be positive rather than negative. As you can see just from glancing at the chart, there has not been a time since late April when either requirement was satisfied. (For a full discussion of the criteria for re-entering the market, see the article here.)

My Capital Appreciation Portfolio remains 100% cash. It will remain that way until the entire market—or an individual stock—displays charts, fundamentals, and valuations that suggest a positive outcome.

As usual, my Dividend Portfolio remains 100% invested. While its value has gone down over the last couple of months, its main goal—generating ever-increasing income streams—is still being met. None of the stocks in the portfolio has cut or frozen its dividend this year. Many have raised their dividends. That's the goal of this portfolio. As long as a stock continues to foster success of the Dividend Portfolio's central mission of increasing dividends, it will not be sold. As dividends accumulate, I will re-invest them.

If you want to learn more about these two portfolios, use these links:

• To see the long-term total performance results of the two portfolios, click here.

• To see the strategy of the Dividend Portfolio, click here.

• To read a complete description of my e-book, THE TOP 40 DIVIDEND STOCKS FOR 2010: How to Generate Wealth or Income from Dividend Stocks, click here.

2. Market Performance Since Last Outlook
(“now” figures are as of close Friday June 25, 2010)

Last Outlook (6/12/10): 6.0 (positive)
S&P 500 last time (6/12/10): 1092
S&P 500 now: 1077 Change: -1%%

S&P 500 at beginning of 2010: 1115
S&P 500 now: 1077 Change in 2010: -3%

S&P 500 at close 3/9/09 (beginning of bull market): 677
S&P 500 now: 1077 Change since 3/9/09: +59%

3. Indicators in Detail

• Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators: A new report on June 17 showed an increases in this index, following a drop (later revised to flat) the prior month. That keeps this indicator at neutral, as I require three consecutive months of either increases or decreases to rate it as positive or negative. "The index points to continued, though slower, U.S. growth for the rest of this year," said Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board. "Public debt and deficits weigh heavily on growth prospects on both sides of the Atlantic." Neutral. +5

• Fed Funds Rate: At its meeting last week, the Fed has left rates near zero again. I have been saying for several months that the Fed will not change rates as long as the economic recovery remains slow and inflation remains low. In its statement last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its "extended period" language (referring to how long it expects to keep interest rates low). The tone of the Fed's statement was not very upbeat: "Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months." The FOMC also noted that "underlying inflation has trended lower." Positive. +10

• S&P 500 Market Valuation (P/E): Morningstar shows the current P/E of the S&P 500 is 15.7, unchanged from last time. That keeps this indicator in positive territory. +10

• Morningstar’s Market Valuation Graph. Morningstar’s proprietary market valuation graph is at 0.95, down a tick from 0.96 last time. That keeps it in the “fairly valued” band of plus or minus 10% of 1.00. Neutral. +5

• S&P 500 Short Term Technical Trend: Last week’s 4% fall in the S&P 500 pulled the index below its 20-day SMA. Looking at the two shorter SMAs that I use for this indicator (20-day and 50-day), the chart is the exact opposite of what one would like to see: 50-day SMA > 20-day SMA > Index. That renders this indicator negative. +0

• S&P 500 Medium Term Technical Trend: The mid-term indicator uses the index plus its two longer SMAs (50-day and 200-day). This indicator remains ambiguous and therefore neutral: 50-day SMA > 200-day SMA > Index. It should be noted that the 50-day SMA is no longer very far above the 200-day SMA. If the index continues generally downward, the configuration will become totally negative, as a “death cross” will occur if the 50-day passes downward through the 200-day. As mentioned in prior posts, for many technical analysts, this chart already is quite negative by the simple fact that the index itself is below its 200-day SMA. +5

• DJIA Short Term Technical Trend: This chart looks basically like the S&P 500 chart. Negative. +0

• DJIA Medium Term Technical Trend: Same as the S&P 500. Neutral. +5

• NASDAQ Short Term Technical Trend: The NASDAQ’s chart, while tighter than the other two, nevertheless has the same configuration. Negative. +0

• NASDAQ Medium Term Technical Trend: Looks like the other two. Neutral. +5

TOTAL POINTS: 45
NEW READING: 45 / 10 = 4.5 = NEGATIVE

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Timing Outlook Returns to Positive Value (Corrected)

1. Summary

(Note: The original version of this article incorrectly stated the Timing Outlook's value as 5.0. It is 6.0.)

The Timing Outlook increases from its last reading (4.5 or "negative") to 6.0. That is a “positive” reading.

The market has recently continued its volatile, hair-trigger behavior. “Big” moves (more than 10 points on the S&P 500) have characterized the market’s daily behavior for well over a month. They have occurred on the majority of trading days.

That has been well documented, so for a change of pace, let’s step back to see the long-term forest instead of the daily trees. The accompanying chart shows the S&P 500 weekly (instead of daily) for the past two years. The simple moving average (SMA) lines are for 10 weeks (about equal to 50 trading days, shown in blue) and 40 weeks (about 200 trading days, shown in red). This kind of chart provides an extreme smoothing of the market’s activity.


(Note to subscribers: If you are having trouble reading this chart in your email, simply click on the title at the top to go to the actual Newsletter. There, you can click the chart to enlarge it.)
Three things jump out at me from this chart.

• First, the blue line (10 weeks or 50 days) has just logged its longest period of descent (about 6 weeks) since the 2009 bull market began in March, 2009.

• Second, the red line (40 weeks or 200 days) has flattened from a clearly ascending mode. It looks like it may be at an inflection point, about to turn downward.

• Third, the past 6 weeks look qualitatively different from any other time-period since the rally began. The market has turned in a downward performance for a fairly significant length of time.

One conclusion might be that the rally that began in 2009 is exhausted, and that it may be turning over to a flat or down market. That said, no one can predict the future, and what looks like an inflection point may be no more than a pause. We won’t know until after it happens.

The Timing Outlook uses a blend of technical and fundamental information. The two forms of analysis really cannot be separated for me; each has its place. The goal, of course, is simple: To own stocks when they are going up, and to not own them when they are going down.

The word “when” in the preceding sentence is what makes things tricky. It is impossible to separate the simple own-or-don’t-own goal from what might be called a “prediction time-frame.” My prediction time-frame is 2 to 4 weeks. That is, the Timing Outlook attempts to answer the question, In what direction will the market or individual stock go over the next 2-4 weeks? Everybody’s prediction time-frame differs. For a day trader, it is shorter than a day. For a long-term holder, it is measured in years. Anything that happens in a shorter period than your prediction time-frame can be regarded as noise, meaning that it can be regarded as a mere fluctuation rather than an investable trend.

In real life, of course, everybody’s total investing time-frame covers many years. You chain together your prediction time-frames and/or your holding periods to get to your total results over your investing lifetime.

My Capital Appreciation Portfolio remains 100% cash at this point. It will remain in cash until the entire market—or an individual stock—displays charts, fundamentals, and valuations that suggest a positive outcome. I take this binary approach—in or out, invested or in cash—because it strikes me as the easiest way to manage the risk inherent in stock ownership when the goal is to buy low and sell high. It is neither a bullish nor bearish approach—it is simply pragmatic.

On the other hand, my Dividend Portfolio remains 100% invested. This seemingly contradictory position compared to the Capital Appreciation Portfolio is not contradictory at all. It is the result of utterly different strategies. In the Dividend Portfolio, the main goal is not to buy low and sell high. Rather, it is to generate an ever-increasing stream of dividend income. The holdings are not protected by sell stops. If you want to learn more, use the following links:

• To see the long-term total performance results of the two portfolios, click here.

• To see the strategy of the Dividend Portfolio, click here.

• To read a complete description of my e-book, THE TOP 40 DIVIDEND STOCKS FOR 2010: How to Generate Wealth or Income from Dividend Stocks, click here.

2. Market Performance Since Last Outlook
(“now” figures are as of close Friday June 11, 2010)

Last Outlook (5/21/10): 4.5 (negative)
S&P 500 last time (5/21/10): 1088
S&P 500 now: 1092 Change: +0%

S&P 500 at beginning of 2010: 1115
S&P 500 now: 1092 Change in 2010: -2%

S&P 500 at close 3/9/09 (beginning of bull market): 677
S&P 500 now: 1092 Change since 3/9/09: +61%

3. Indicators in Detail

• Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators: No new report since last time. That report showed a drop from the prior month, the first decline in a year. That lowered this indicator to neutral, where it will stay until there are three consecutive months of either increases or decreases. Neutral. +5

• Fed Funds Rate: The Fed has left rates near zero for many months. It seems clear that the Fed will not change rates as long as the economic recovery remains slow and inflation remains low. Positive. +10

• S&P 500 Market Valuation (P/E): Morningstar shows the current P/E of the S&P 500 is 15.7, practically unchanged from last time. That keeps this indicator in positive territory. +10

• Morningstar’s Market Valuation Graph. Morningstar’s proprietary market valuation graph (which it calculates by comparing the prices of the stocks in its universe of about 2000 stocks to its analysts' "fair alue" for each stock) is at 0.96, also practically unchanged from last time. That keeps it in the “fairly valued” band of plus or minus 10% of 1.00. Neutral. +5

• S&P 500 Short Term Technical Trend: All three major indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and NASDAQ) had a snapback rally last week, causing each index to rise just slightly above its 20-day SMA, while remaining below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages). Looking just at the two shorter SMAs, the charts are in an ambiguous configuration: 50-day SMA > Index > 20-day SMA. That makes this indicator neutral. +5

• S&P 500 Medium Term Technical Trend: The mid-term indicator uses the index plus its two longer SMAs. This indicator remains ambiguous and therefore neutral: 50-day SMA > 200-day SMA > Index. As mentioned last time, many technical analysts use only the 200-day SMA, and they would interpret the index being below it as a huge negative sign. +5

• DJIA Short Term Technical Trend: This chart looks basically like the S&P 500 chart. Neutral. +5

• DJIA Medium Term Technical Trend: Same as the S&P 500. Neutral. +5

• NASDAQ Short Term Technical Trend: The NASDAQ’s chart is the closest to turning positive using the two shorter-term SMAs. The index is at 2243.6, while the 20-day SMA is just above it at 2244.8. The lines not having crossed (and there is no guarantee that they will), this indicator is like the other two, neutral. +5

• NASDAQ Medium Term Technical Trend: Looking at the two longer SMAs, the index has passed back above its 200-day SMA (just barely). The configuration is 50-day SMA > Index > 200-day SMA. It’s still neutral here, but some technical analysts would say it has turned positive because of the clearance of the 200-day SMA. +5

TOTAL POINTS: 60
NEW READING: 60 / 10 = 6.0 = POSITIVE