Timing Outlook Still Positive, But Barely So

Special note:

Because of today's large market pullback, all three of the short-term technical indicators in the Timing Outlook fell to neutral from positive. Specifically, each of the three indexes (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ) fell below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA). In terms of calculating the Timing Outlook, all three therefore fell from +10 to +5.

That takes the total of all indicators down from a score of 90 to 75. The Timing Outlook thus registers 75/10 = 7.5. That is still a positive value (since it is above 7), but I thought I would post this special note for those who were wondering, especially since each index closed near its low for the day.

Each index is still above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. However, another large drop or two could take the index below its 50-day SMA, which would turn all three short-term indicators negative, and bring the overall Timing Outlook itself down to neutral.

For now, I am doing nothing in reaction to today's pullback. I have 8% sell-stops in place, although they now sit about 4% below the current prices of SPY, QQQQ, and IBM, the three ETFs and stocks that I own in my Capital Appreciation Portfolio.