Monday, November 22, 2010

Top 40 Dividend Stocks for 2011--Progress Report

I have completed what I call Stage 1 work on The Top 40 Dividend-Growth Stocks for 2011. This work consisted of the following:
  • A complete re-write of the text. I made two major changes to the text this year. First, I condensed my 5-article series on retirement funding into a single new chapter for the book. I incorporated a few additional ideas that came to light in the comments I received on the original articles as well as further thinking I have done on the topic. Second, I combined two chapters (formerly called "What Are Dividends?" and "Why Invest in Dividend Stocks?") into a single new chapter, "Why Invest in Dividend-Growth Stocks?" I did this to eliminate redundancies and try to create some space for the new chapter on retirement. The 2011 edition will contain about 17 more pages than 2010's edition. As usual, I also tinkered with the stock-scoring system. I bumped up the points available for a company's Story from 10 to 15 to reflect how important I think every company's business model and competitive position are. I changed the "look-back" period for dividend growth rates from 3 years to 5 years. I tightened the standards for Stock Valuation a little. I am more consistently using the phrase "dividend-growth stocks" instead of "dividend stocks" to emphasize the focus on companies that increase their dividends every year. That will also be relected in the title of the book itself.
  • I completed the most tedious part of the whole project, which is reviewing more than 700 companies to select those that have any reasonable chance of being selected for the Top 40. There are 6 initial tests I put these companies through, including minimum yield, minimum yield growth, minimum number of years of increasing their dividends, and the like. This year's Stage 1 processing took 708 stocks and eliminated 572 of them. So 136 stocks remain for Stage 2 testing, which will begin immediately. Because I start testing stocks so early (in September), I use "eased" requirements that allow some stocks to pass forward if they just miss on one or two requirements. I do this because the numbers may change in the last 3 months of the year, and I don't want to drop a stock prematurely. Stage 2 will allow no easing. From past experience, Stage 2 will eliminate 20%-30% of the stocks. I love eliminating stocks, not only beause it reduces the work required in later stages, but also because I love to see the best of the best begin to emerge.
At the end of Stage 2, the stocks that remain will be the "Semi-Finalists." Those will then be put through many more tests than the initial 6 requirements. The best ones that rise to the front of the list will become the "Finalists." I'll choose the Top 40 from those some time in January.

I am still hoping to have the publication available in January. My final scoring of stocks and selection of the Top 40 cannot be completed until January, because I need year-end data. My wife and I have decided to take a southern trip just after the holidays, so I will lose a few days in the car. In 2010, I got the project published on January 19 (if I recall correctly). I am hoping to hit around that date again with this edition.